Landslide susceptibility modelling—a crucial step towards the assessment of landslide hazard and risk—has hitherto not included the local, transient effects of previous landslides on susceptibility. In this contribution, we implement such transient effects, which we term “landslide path dependency”, for the first time. Two landslide path dependency variables are used to characterise transient effects: a variable reflecting how likely it is that an earlier landslide will have a follow-up landslide and a variable reflecting the decay of transient effects over time. These two landslide path dependency variables are considered in addition to a large set of conditioning attributes conventionally used in landslide susceptibility. Three logistic regression models were trained and tested fitted to landslide occurrence data from a multi-temporal landslide inventory: (1) a model with only conventional variables, (2) a model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables, and (3) a model with only landslide path dependency variables. We compare the model performances, differences in the number, coefficient and significance of the selected variables, and the differences in the resulting susceptibility maps. Although the landslide path dependency variables are highly significant and have impacts on the importance of other variables, the performance of the models and the susceptibility maps do not substantially differ between conventional and conventional plus path dependent models. The path dependent landslide susceptibility model, with only two explanatory variables, has lower model performance, and differently patterned susceptibility map than the two other models. A simple landslide susceptibility model using only DEM-derived variables and landslide path dependency variables performs better than the path dependent landslide susceptibility model, and almost as well as the model with conventional plus landslide path dependency variables—while avoiding the need for hard-to-measure variables such as land use or lithology. Although the predictive power of landslide path dependency variables is lower than those of the most important conventional variables, our findings provide a clear incentive to further explore landslide path dependency effects and their potential role in landslide susceptibility modelling. 相似文献
The ～?2-km-thick Panzhihua gabbroic-layered intrusion in SW China is unusual because it hosts a giant Fe–Ti oxide deposit in its lower zone. The deposit consists of laterally extensive net-textured and massive Fe–Ti oxide ore layers, the thickest of which is ～?60 m. To examine the magmatic processes that resulted in the Fe enrichment of parental high-Ti basaltic magma and the formation of thick, Fe–Ti oxide ore layers, we carried out a detailed study of melt inclusions in apatite from a ～?500-m-thick profile of apatite-bearing leucogabbro in the middle zone of the intrusion. The apatite-hosted melt inclusions are light to dark brown in color and appear as polygonal, rounded, oval and negative crystal shapes, which range from ～?5 to ～?50 µm in width and from ～?5 to ～?100 µm in length. They have highly variable compositions and show a large and continuous range of SiO2 and FeOt with contrasting end-members; one end-member being Fe-rich and Si-poor (40.2 wt% FeOt and 17.7 wt% SiO2) and the other being Si-rich and Fe-poor (74.0 wt% SiO2 and 1.20 wt% FeOt). This range in composition may be attributed to entrapment of the melt inclusions over a range of temperature and may reflect the presence of µm-scale and immiscible Fe-rich and Si-rich components in different proportions. Simulating results for the motion of Si-rich droplets within a crystal mush indicate that Si-rich droplets would be separated from Fe-rich melt and migrate upward due to density differences in the interstitial liquid when the magma unmixed. Migration of the Si-rich, immiscible liquid component from the interstitial liquid caused the remaining Fe-rich melt in the lower part to react with plagioclase primocrysts (An59–60), as evidenced by fine-grained lamellar intergrowth of An-rich plagioclase (An79–84)?+?clinopyroxene in the oxide gabbro of the lower zone. Therefore, magma unmixing within a crystal mush, combined with gravitationally driven loss of the Si-rich component, resulted in the formation of Fe-rich, melagabbro and major Fe–Ti oxide ores in the lower part and Si-rich, leucogabbro in the upper part of the intrusion. 相似文献
Concern about climate change has motivated France to reduce its reliance on fossil fuel by setting targets for increased biomass-based renewable energy production. This study quantifies the carbon costs and benefits for the French forestry sector in meeting these targets. A forest growth and harvest simulator was developed for French forests using recent forest inventory data, and the wood-use chain was reconstructed from national wood product statistics. We then projected wood production, bioenergy production, and carbon balance for three realistic intensification scenarios and a business-as-usual scenario. These intensification scenarios targeted either overstocked, harvest-delayed or currently actively managed stands.
Results
All three intensification strategies produced 11.6–12.4 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year of wood-based energy by 2026, which corresponds to the target assigned to French wood-energy to meet the EU 2020 renewable energy target. Sustaining this level past 2026 will be challenging, let alone further increasing it. Although energy production targets can be reached, the management intensification required will degrade the near-term carbon balance of the forestry sector, compared to continuing present-day management. Even for the best-performing intensification strategy, i.e., reducing the harvest diameter of actively managed stands, the carbon benefits would only become apparent after 2040. The carbon balance of a strategy putting abandoned forests back into production would only break even by 2055; the carbon balance from increasing thinning in managed but untended stands would not break even within the studied time periods, i.e. 2015–2045 and 2046–2100. Owing to the temporal dynamics in the components of the carbon balance, i.e., the biomass stock in the forest, the carbon stock in wood products, and substitution benefits, the merit order of the examined strategies varies over time.
Conclusions
No single solution was found to improve the carbon balance of the forestry sector by 2040 in a way that also met energy targets. We therefore searched for the intensification scenario that produces energy at the lowest carbon cost. Reducing rotation time of actively managed stands is slightly more efficient than targeting harvest-delayed stands, but in both cases, each unit of energy produced has a carbon cost that only turns into a benefit between 2060 and 2080.
How can universities build institutional partnerships through supporting community geography projects? This paper details the case of university members seeking to achieve a community goal of expanding Geosciences education opportunities, while also targeting a long-range goal of improving diversity within the university Geosciences. Over the course of one year, two Ph.D students collaborated with community members affiliated with a local middle school to design and organize the School of Earth, Society, and Environment (SESE) Geosciences Camp for Middle School Girls, held in August 2019. This paper deconstructs and critiques the camp organizing process and its outcomes. The conclusion addresses what worked and what did not as a model for future attempts at more sustainable institutional partnerships serving community geography projects.
Relative sea-level (RSL) evolution during Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5 in the Mediterranean basin is still not fully understood despite a plethora of morphological, stratigraphic and geochronological studies carried out on highstand deposits of this area. In this review we assembled a database of 323 U/Th-dated samples (e.g. corals, molluscs, speleothems) which were used to chronologically constrain RSL evolution within MIS 5. The application of strict geochemical criteria to the U/Th samples indicates that only ~33% of data available for the Mediterranean Sea can be considered ‘reliable’. Most of these data (~65%) refer to the MIS 5e highstand, while only ~17% could be related to the MIS 5a. No attribution to MIS 5c can be unequivocally supported. Nevertheless, the resulting framework does not allow us to define a satisfactory RSL trend during the MIS 5e highstand and subsequent MIS 5 substages. Overall, the proposed selection of reliable/unreliable data would be useful for detecting areas where MIS 5 substage attributions are not supported by confident U/Th chronological data and thus the related reconstructions need to be revised. In this regard, the resulting framework calls for a reappraisal and re-examination of the Mediterranean records with advanced geochronological methodologies. 相似文献
Floods are natural processes that constitute a hazard to society when associated to improper land use. Anthropic activities in floodplains are a factor of vulnerability that converts a natural hazard into a threat factor, eventually leading to disaster. Nowadays, natural and social complex processes demand integrated assessments in order to improve their understanding, helping decision making over sustainable use of territory, as well as integrating society’s activity in ecosystems and potentials, restrictions and benefits that society obtain from them. In this context, the objective of this work was to build a composite vulnerability model for a floodplain under urban influence, using an integrated assessment approach. This model was based on three dimensions; threat, fragility and an ecosystem services provision. These dimensions were calculated using both primary and secondary information, and weights by specialists. Main results show that the area presents high vulnerability with an increasing gradient towards high and urbanized areas, associated with an important number and relevant ecosystem services. Also, a spatial heterogeneity of the three dimensions emerged, making evident this area’s complexity and the need of integrated assessments to approach it. The composite vulnerability model proposed presents an elevated potential for natural and social processes analysis in floodplains, which is crucial for these territory management. Moreover, these integrated dimensions could contribute to decision making in different levels, as well as generating important supplies for environmental management and land planning.
Natural Hazards - A landslide is a geomorphological hazard with significant ecological and economic damages. The present study aimed to identify landslide-prone areas in Farizi watershed via the... 相似文献
